Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
